O Método de Simulação de Monte Carlo na Análise e Incorporação de Risco no Valor de Projetos ; The Monte Carlo Simulation Method in the Analysis and Incorporation of Risk into the Value of Projects

Relatório de Estágio do Mestrado em Economia apresentado à Faculdade de Economia ; This report describes the realization of my curricular internship in the field of Project Management, between the 5th of February and the 21st of May, 2018. The internship took place in the Business Unit - CH Academy, a company of Grupo CH, experts in training and people development. The main objectives of the internship were at the level of technical-pedagogical coordination of “formação-ação” projects that another company of Grupo CH is performing in some micro, small and medium sized companies. For some of the entities involved in these projects, they have some of the characteristics of investment projects.For the entity that undertakes this type of projects and that aims to maximize its profitability, a way to asses this profitability is through the use of project evaluation models. Since these projects are often subject to uncertainties and various types of risk, it is essential to have a deeper understanding of the methods that support the decision-making process. In this sense, it was decided to develop a project evaluation model based on Monte Carlo Simulation.In addition, I also perform a scenario analysis on the base model, i. e., I analyse the profitability that would be obtained if a set of assumptions would be changed, and a sensitivity analysis, since the possibility of some variations in its random variables allows to test the impact of different strategies on the project’s profitability.The results suggest that if random variables are no longer defined by probability distributions and instead assume their expected value, the impact on the net financial benefits is very insignificant; the variation in the probability of the companies to accept joining the project when contacted by KWL has a very significant impact; and the increase in the number of workers to make contacts for the recruitment of companies was the variable that showed the greatest impact on the variation of the net benefits. ; O presente relatório ...