An Integrated Climate Science-Economic Model for Evaluating Adaptations to Sea Level Rise: A Prototype Model for Monterey, California

Preparing for flooding that will be exacerbated by climate change and sea level rise must take place in the context of "deep uncertainty". One strategy for dealing with that uncertainty is to convert unknown probabilities into know probabilities using techniques such as Monte Carlo analysis. This paper demonstrates the feasibility of creating a cost-benefit model for sea level rise adaptation options using an integrated climate change/sea level rise-weather-economic model. The model tests the probability of benefits exceeding costs for shoreline protection such as beach nourishment and armoring under multiple iterations of possible climate futures. It uses shoreline segments in Monterey, California as a test area. The results of the tests indicate action should be taken sooner rather than later to increase the probability of a positive NPV. The need for further refinement and extension of the model is discussed.