Are long telomeres better than short? Relative contributions of genetically predicted telomere length to neoplastic and non-neoplastic disease risk and population health burden

BackgroundMendelian Randomization (MR) studies exploiting single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) predictive of leukocyte telomere length (LTL) have suggested that shorter genetically determined telomere length (gTL) is associated with increased risks of degenerative diseases, including cardiovascular and Alzheimer's diseases, while longer gTL is associated with increased cancer risks. These varying directions of disease risk have long begged the question: when it comes to telomeres, is it better to be long or short? We propose to operationalize and answer this question by considering the relative impact of long gTL vs. short gTL on disease incidence and burden in a population.Methods and findingsWe used odds ratios (OR) of disease associated with gTL from a recently published MR meta-analysis to approximate the relative contributions of gTL to the incidence and burden of neoplastic and non-neoplastic disease in a European population. We obtained incidence data of the 9 cancers associated with long gTL and 4 non-neoplastic diseases associated with short gTL from the Institute of Health Metrics (IHME). Incidence rates of individual cancers from SEER, a database of United States cancer records, were used to weight the ORs in order to align with the available IHME data. These data were used to estimate the excess incidences due to long vs. short gTL, expressed as per 100,000 persons per standard deviation (SD) change in gTL. To estimate the population disease burden, we used the Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALY) metric from the IHME, a measure of overall disease burden that accounts for both mortality and morbidity, and similarly calculated the excess DALY associated with long vs. short gTL.ResultsOur analysis shows that, despite the markedly larger ORs of neoplastic disease, the large incidence of degenerative diseases causes the excess incidence attributable to gTL to balance that of neoplastic diseases. Long gTL is associated with an excess incidence of 94.04 cases/100,000 persons/SD (45.49-168.84, 95%CI) ...