Hierarchical Forecasting for the Management of Distribution Grids

International audience ; The various voltage levels of power systems form a hierarchical structure. In radial distribution grids, the individual production or consumption of Distributed Energy Resources (DER) operating at the low voltage or medium voltage flow through the grid, experiencing losses and constraints, before summing up at the substation transformer which constitutes the TSO/DSO interface. Considering that most of these resources are operated by different stakeholders issuing independent energy forecasts, this work proposes a reconciliation approach to predict Photovoltaics (PV) production in distribution grids. The impact of reconciliation is analysed in terms of prediction error at the PV site, but also in terms of estimation of the aggregated flow at the TSO/DSO interface and the associated flexibility map in active/reactive power of DER operating in a selected Medium Voltage (MV) grid.