نبذة مختصرة : ABSTRACT IMPACT: A machine learning approach using electronic health records can combine descriptive, population-level factors of pressure injury outcomes. OBJECTIVES/GOALS: Pressure injuries cause 60,000 deaths and cost $26 billion annually in the US, but prevention is laborious. We used clinical data to develop a machine learning algorithm for predicting pressure injury risk and prescribe the timing of intervention to help clinicians balance competing priorities. METHODS/STUDY POPULATION: We obtained 94,745 electronic health records with 7,000 predictors to calibrate a predictive algorithm of pressure injury risk. Machine learning was used to mine features predicting changes in pressure injury risk; random forests outperformed neural networks, boosting and bagging in feature selection. These features were fit to multilevel ordered logistic regression to create an algorithm that generated empirical Bayes estimates informing a decision-rule for follow-up based on individual risk trajectories over time. We used cross-validation to verify predictive validity, and constrained optimization to select a best-fit algorithm that reduced the time required to trigger patient follow-up. RESULTS/ANTICIPATED RESULTS: The algorithm significantly improved prediction of pressure injury risk (p<0.001) with an area under the ROC curve of 0.60 compared to the Braden Scale, a traditional clinician instrument of pressure injury risk. At a specificity of 0.50, the model achieved a sensitivity of 0.63 within 2.5 patient-days. Machine learning identified categorical increases in risk when patients were prescribed vasopressors (OR=16.4, p<0.001), beta-blockers (OR=4.8, p<0.001), erythropoietin stimulating agents (OR=3.0, p<0.001), or were ordered a urinalysis screen (OR=9.1, p<0.001), lipid panel (OR=5.7, p<0.001) or pre-albumin panel (OR=2.0, p<0.001). DISCUSSION/SIGNIFICANCE OF FINDINGS: This algorithm could help hospitals conserve resources within a critical period of patient vulnerability for ...
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