May Material Bottlenecks Hamper the Global Energy Transition Towards the 1.5°C Target?

Potentially scarce materials play an important role in many current and emerging technologies needed to support a sustainable energy and mobility system. This paper examines the global demand for 25 potentially scarce materials needed in key energy and transport technologies. The starting point is a global energy system scenario that is compatible with the 1.5°C target. To determine the material requirements, an extensive database was built up on the current and expected future specific demand of these materials in the key technologies studied. A second database describes the potential development of sub-technology market shares (e.g. different battery types) within a technology class (e.g. photovoltaics). A material flow analysis model was used to determine the annual and cumulative material requirements as well as the recycling potential. The results show that current production of all materials will have to be increased, in some cases significantly, in a short period of time to meet the anticipated demand for the energy and transportation system. In addition, the cumulative demand for some materials significantly exceeds current reserves and even resources. In particular, lithium, cobalt, and nickel for batteries, dysprosium and neodymium for permanent magnets (e.g. wind turbines and electric motors), and iridium as well as platinum in fuel cells and electrolyzers are affected. The construction of battery electric and fuel cell electric vehicles thus represents a major driver of the growing material demand. Depending on the material, the expected shortages can be reduced or delayed by technology substitution, ambitious material recycling, an extension of technology lifetime, increased material efficiency, and a smaller future vehicle stock, but not entirely avoided. Hence, it can be expected that material bottlenecks will result in increases in material prices, at least in the short to medium term. What impact this will have on the transformation process itself still needs to be investigated in more detail.