Valid and accurate simple equation to predict 3,000-m steeplechase performance ; Une équation valide et précise pour prédire la performance sur 3000m steeple ; Valid and accurate simple equation to predict 3,000-m steeplechase performance: 3,000m steeplechase

International audience ; Introduction: Predict running performances is very important for athletes and trainers. Sport researchers have therefore developed certain tools to predict running performances, but only in non-obstacle races. This study aimed to develop and test the validity and accuracy of an equation for predicting 3,000-m steeplechase performance ( Perf Steeple ). Methods: The official rankings of French runners for the 3,000-m track-running ( Perf 3000 ) and 3,000-m steeplechase events were examined. Age, height and body mass were collected. From 146 included athletes, two groups were randomly composed: one comprising 80% of the sample ( n = 117) to develop a simple equation to predict Perf Steeple ( i.e. , development group) and the other comprising the remaining 20% ( n = 29) to test the validity and accuracy of the developed prediction equation (i.e. , cross-validation group). Results: The simple prediction equation included Perf 3000 and age: P e r f S t e e p l e = − 57 , 165 + 1 , 147 × P e r f 3000 + 0 , 955 × a g e . No significant difference was noted between the actual and predicted performances. Predicted performances were significantly correlated with the actual ones, with a very high correlation coefficient ( p < 0.001; r = 0.929). Bias and 95% limits of agreement were −5 ± 24 s, i.e. , −0.8 ± 7.6%. In 95 of 100 new predictions, the difference between actual and predicted performance would be less or equal to —5 ± 24 s. Discussion: The study confirms the validity and accuracy of the equation for predicting Perf Steeple . Predictions using this simple equation may be used in training and competitions for athletes and coaches. Perf Steeple = −57,165 + 1,147 X Perf 3000 + 0,955 X age. ; Introduction : Prédire la performance en course à pied est très important pour les athlètes et les entraîneurs. Les chercheurs en sport ont donc développé certains outils pour prédire les performances de course, mais uniquement pour les courses sans obstacles. Cette étude visait donc à développer et à ...