نبذة مختصرة : Objective of research: to identify the role of intra-population and agro-meteorological factors in dynamics of populations of potato cyst-nematodes Globodera rostochiensis in potatoes grown as monoculture on loamy soil, and create the predictive mathematical models. Materials and methods: Dynamics of population density of potato cyst-nematodes Globodera rostochiensis in soil were studies over 15 years (from 1979 to 1993) on three fields with highly susceptible potato cultivars grown as monoculture. Sampling, phytohelminthological analysis of soil samples were performed by standard methods. Correlation between the agro-meteorological factors and population density of potato cyst-nematodes Globodera rostochiensis was investigated by the time-series analysis and the program Eviews 7.0.Results and discussion: The correlation analysis of agro-meteorological factors carried out for a monoculture of highly susceptible potato cultivar (average monthly soil temperature at the depth of 10cm, oC: March, June, July, August, September, December, January, February, air temperature, oC: May, June, July, August, maximum depth of soil freezing, cm, freezing period, days, depth of snow cover, cm, amount of precipitation, mm: annual average , April, May, June, July, August, September, amount of days with precipitation: May, June, July, August, September), based on the effect on the population density of potato cyst-nematodes Globodera rostochiensis, revealed that the most meteorological factors have no significant effects (r=0,01-0,6).The following factors have a slight effect (r=0,3-0,4) on the population density of potato cyst-nematode Globodera rostochiensis : air temperature, oC in August, soil temperature at the depth of 10cm, oC in September, average effect (r=0,5-0,6), air temperature, oC in June, soil temperature at the depth of 10 cm, in March and June, precipitations, mm: annual, May, June, July. Mathematical models for forecasting population densities of potato cyst-nematode Globodera rostochiensis based on ...
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