Spatial Bayesian distributed lag non-linear models (SB-DLNM) for small-area exposure-lag-response epidemiological modelling ...

Published article: International Journal of Epidemiology, Volume 53, Issue 3, June 2024, dyae061, https://doi.org/10.1093/ije/dyae061 Background Distributed lag non-linear models (DLNMs) are the reference framework for modelling lagged non-linear associations. They are usually used in large-scale multi-location studies. Attempts to study these associations in small areas either did not include the lagged non-linear effects, did not allow for geographically-varying risks or downscaled risks from larger spatial units through socioeconomic and physical meta-predictors when the estimation of the risks was not feasible due to low statistical power. Methods Here we proposed spatial Bayesian DLNMs (SB-DLNMs) as a new framework for the estimation of reliable small-area lagged non-linear associations, and demonstrated the methodology for the case study of the temperature-mortality relationship in the 73 neighbourhoods of the city of Barcelona. We generalized location-independent DLNMs to the Bayesian framework ...