نبذة مختصرة : Accepted version ; International audience ; Background. Health care evaluation models can be useful to assign different levels of priority to interventions or policies targeting different age groups or different determinants of health. We aimed to assess early mortality in counterfactual scenarios implying reduced adverse childhood experience (ACE) and/or improved educational attainment (childhood and early life characteristics), compared with a counterfactual scenario implying reduced smoking in adulthood. Methods. We used data from the 1958 National Child Development Study British birth cohort, which initially included 18 558 subjects. Applying a potential outcome approach, scenarios were simulated to estimate the expected mortality between ages 16 and 55 under a counterfactual decrease by half of the observed level of exposure to (i) ACE, (ii) low educational attainment (at age 22), (iii) ACE and low educational attainment (a combined exposure) and (iv) smoking at age 33. Estimations were obtained using g-computation, separately for men and women. Analyses were further stratified according to the parental level of education, to assess social inequalities. Results. The study population included 12 164 members. The estimated decrease in mortality in the counterfactual scenarios with reduced ACE and improved educational attainment was close to the decreased mortality in the counterfactual scenario with reduced smoking, showing a relative difference in mortality of respectively −7.2% [95% CI (confidence interval) = (−12.2% to 1.2%)] versus −7.0% (−13.1% to +1.2%) for women, and −9.9% (−15.6% to −6.2%) versus −12.3% (−17.0% to −5.9%) for men. Conclusions. Our results highlight the potential value of targeting early social characteristics such as ACE and education, compared with well-recognized interventions on smoking.
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