Study on Electric Vehicle Penetrations’ Influence on 3Es in ASEAN ; ERIA Research Project FY2019 ; No. 06

Demand for passenger and freight transportation in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) is great and automobile use is rapidly spreading. The adverse effects are traffic congestion, traffic accidents, and air pollution, especially in urban areas. As demand for petroleum as automobile fuel has increased, oil self sufficiency has declined greatly whilst CO2 emissions have increased. Greater automobile penetration is expected as the economy grows, increasing energy security and environmental concerns. To tackle these issues, ASEAN countries have announced policies to promote electric vehicles (xEVs), including hybrid (HEVs), plug in hybrid (PHEVs), and battery electric vehicles (BEVs), and to develop infrastructure. For example, Indonesia will ban the sale of internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs) by 2040. Malaysia is planning to increase the number of passenger electric vehicles (EVs) to 100,000 by 2030 and establish 125,000 charging bases. Thailand has announced BEV investment incentives and the conversion of all 22,000 tuk tuks to BEVs by 2025. These measures will reduce oil consumption and air pollution but increase demand for electricity. Depending on their power generation sectors (generation mix, input fuels, etc.), countries might not become energy self sufficient or solve their environmental problems. This study analyses EV deployment effects and side effects by around 2040 on the economy, energy, and environment (3Es) the basic principle of energy policy. The study analyses qualitative and quantitative information on energy supply and demand structure, impacts on CO2 emissions, and the macroeconomy to contribute to ASEAN members’ automobile and energy policy planning.