Simulation of groundwater system and seawater intrusion response to climate change and human activities on the coastal aquifer of Gaza Strip, Palestine

This study set out to investigate the potential impact of human activities and climate change on the groundwater budget, levels and seawater intrusion behave for the coastal aquifer of the Gaza Strip within the next two decades. Also, to check the effectiveness of an alternative freshwater provision together with the relocation process of some coastal municipal wells on the future groundwater quantity and quality. The dilemma of the Gaza Strip is not comparable to the other Mediterranean coastal regions in the sense of severe deterioration of the water system, due to the armed and political conflicts, severe economic declination, high crowded population and incremental increase in water wells consumption intensify all hydrological variation impacts by accelerating the damages to an already over-abstracted coastal aquifer. Lack of research related to the potential impact of climate change on the coastal aquifer is one of the main concerns for the decision-makers in the Gaza Strip, also the effectiveness of the current groundwater recovery program that is being carried out by the WASH cluster is still uncertain. A three-dimensional groundwater flow model (MODFLOW-2005) and variable-density saltwater flow and transport (SEAWAT) model within the Groundwater Modelling System (GMS) environment as well were utilized in this study to investigate the variation in groundwater budget, levels and seawater intrusion under different proposed scenarios. Chloride (CL) anion concentrations mixing interaction between the Sea and the coastal groundwater was utilized to investigate seawater intrusion over time. SCP plugin via QGIS and raster satellite images were used as the first essential step for identifying the variations in built-up areas and agricultural areas over the baseline period (2010-2019). The land-use recharge coefficient and soil type recharge coefficient developed by the Palestinian Water Authority (PWA) were utilized for the calculation of net natural aquifer recharge depending on the monthly rainfall data in each ...