Synergy of ground pyranometric measurements and hemispherical images with meteorological satellite images for the photovoltaic forecasting ; Synergie des mesures pyranométriques et des images hémisphériques in situ avec des images satellites météorologiques pour la prévision photovoltaïque

The exploitation of solar energy raises challenges related to the variable nature of the resources in-volved: the incident solar irradiance. Its intermittent behavior is an issue for grid and photovoltaic power plants management. One of the solutions that have been widely considered is the forecast of photovoltaic production at different time horizon.The aim of this thesis is to explore new ways for improving the existing solar irradiance forecasts, for ho-rizons ranging from the present moment to few hours, by exploiting possible synergies between pyranomet-ric measurements, hemispherical images of the sky taken from the ground and images acquired by geosta-tionary meteorological satellites. These two types of images have completely different spatial coverage, spatio-temporal resolutions and are taken from two different locations.The proposed approach in this thesis exploits this difference in points of view in order to geolocate the clouds in 3D by stereoscopy, whose shadows dynamics can then be estimated and forecasted. A geometric simulator of the method has been developed and allows identifying certain advantages and limitations. The geolocation of clouds applied to real images made it possible to develop efficient estimates and forecasts of incident solar irradiance. Finally, to complete the usual analysis of these performances, two new metrics have been proposed in order to quantify two essential notions: the monitoring of the ramps and the temporal alignment of the forecast with the measurements. ; L’exploitation de l’énergie solaire pose des défis liés à la nature variable de la ressource concernée : le rayonnement solaire. Son comportement intermittent est un problème pour la gestion du réseau électrique et des centrales photovoltaïques. L'une des solutions largement envisagées est la prévision de la production photovoltaïque à différents horizons.L'objectif de cette thèse est d'explorer de nouvelles voies pour améliorer les prévisions existantes du rayonnement solaire, pour des horizons allant de ...