Desaceleração, indústria e demografia no Brasil: Uma investigação sobre a estagnação da economia brasileira

Brazil has shown a notable reduction in its growth rates since the 1980s. Several studies that evaluate the long-term behavior of the Brazilian economy produce factors such as labor that explain the growth of economies. Curiously, the active economic population doubled in the period in question, and the Brazilian economy showed low growth rates. The hypothesis of this article is that a structural change in the labor market, caused by demographic expansion, is one of the causes of the stagnation of economic growth, since the generation of jobs in the service sector, whose returns of scale are decreasing, the employment generated in the manufacturing sector. The estimates made by OLS and GMM in time series show that, in general, the effects of industrial employment on output are on average two to three times higher than the employment generated in services.