نبذة مختصرة : Background New frontier settlements across the Amazon Basin pose a major challenge for malaria elimination in Brazil. Here we describe the epidemiology of malaria during the early phases of occupation of farming settlements in Remansinho area, Brazilian Amazonia. We examine the relative contribution of low-density and asymptomatic parasitemias to the overall Plasmodium vivax burden over a period of declining transmission and discuss potential hurdles for malaria elimination in Remansinho and similar settings. Methods Eight community-wide cross-sectional surveys, involving 584 subjects, were carried out in Remansinho over 3 years and complemented by active and passive surveillance of febrile illnesses between the surveys. We used quantitative PCR to detect low-density asexual parasitemias and gametocytemias missed by conventional microscopy. Mixed-effects multiple logistic regression models were used to characterize independent risk factors for P. vivax infection and disease. Principal Findings/Conclusions P. vivax prevalence decreased from 23.8% (March–April 2010) to 3.0% (April–May 2013), with no P. falciparum infections diagnosed after March–April 2011. Although migrants from malaria-free areas were at increased risk of malaria, their odds of having P. vivax infection and disease decreased by 2–3% with each year of residence in Amazonia. Several findings indicate that low-density and asymptomatic P. vivax parasitemias may complicate residual malaria elimination in Remansinho: (a) the proportion of subpatent infections (i.e. missed by microscopy) increased from 43.8% to 73.1% as P. vivax transmission declined; (b) most (56.6%) P. vivax infections were asymptomatic and 32.8% of them were both subpatent and asymptomatic; (c) asymptomatic parasite carriers accounted for 54.4% of the total P. vivax biomass in the host population; (d) over 90% subpatent and asymptomatic P. vivax had PCR-detectable gametocytemias; and (e) few (17.0%) asymptomatic and subpatent P. vivax infections that were left untreated progressed to clinical disease over 6 weeks of follow-up and became detectable by routine malaria surveillance.
Author Summary Despite decades of control efforts, malaria remains a major public health concern in Brazil. A large proportion of the 243,000 cases diagnosed per year originate from areas of recent colonization in the densely forested Amazon Basin. This population-based longitudinal study addresses the epidemiology of malaria during the early stages of colonization of frontier settlements in Remansinho area, rural Amazonia. We documented a major decline in the prevalence of P. vivax infection, from 23.8% to 3.0%, between March–April 2010 and April–May 2013. Up to 73.1% of the P. vivax infections were missed by microscopy as malaria transmission declined and most (56.6%) of these infections caused no clinical signs or symptoms. Few (17.0%) asymptomatic P. vivax infections that were left untreated eventually progressed to clinical disease, becoming detectable by routine malaria surveillance, over 6 weeks of follow-up. Moreover, nearly all P. vivax infections that were undetected by microscopy had gametocytes, the parasite's blood stages responsible for malaria transmission to mosquito vectors, detected by molecular methods. These findings indicate that apparently healthy carriers of low-density parasitemias, who are often missed by conventional microscopy, contribute significantly to ongoing P. vivax transmission and may further complicate residual malaria elimination in Remansinho and similar endemic settings.
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