Comparison of mortality risk evaluation tools efficacy in critically ill COVID-19 patients

Background As the COVID-19 pandemic continues, the number of patients admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) is still increasing. The aim of our article is to estimate which of the conventional ICU mortality risk scores is the most accurate at predicting mortality in COVID-19 patients and to determine how these scores can be used in combination with the 4C Mortality Score. Methods This was a retrospective study of critically ill COVID-19 patients treated in tertiary reference COVID-19 hospitals during the year 2020. The 4C Mortality Score was calculated upon admission to the hospital. The Simplified Acute Physiology Score (SAPS) II, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II, and Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) scores were calculated upon admission to the ICU. Patients were divided into two groups: ICU survivors and ICU non-survivors. Results A total of 249 patients were included in the study, of which 63.1% were male. The average age of all patients was 61.32 ± 13.3 years. The all-cause ICU mortality ratio was 41.4% (n = 103). To determine the accuracy of the ICU mortality risk scores a ROC-AUC analysis was performed. The most accurate scale was the APACHE II, with an AUC value of 0.772 (95% CI 0.714–0.830; p Conclusions The study demonstrated that the APACHE II had the best discrimination of mortality in ICU patients. Both the APACHE II and 4C Mortality Score independently predict mortality risk and can be used concomitantly.