Applicability of Framingham risk equations for studying a low-income Mexican population

Objective. To compare the predicted risk of coronary heart disease (CHD) and incident myocardial infarction (MI) using Framingham score equations with the observed rate of MI in Mexican subjects. Material and Methods. Longitudinal study that included 1 667 men and women aged 35 to 64 years without MI at baseline. Incident MI was defined by elec trocardiogram or death certificate. The predicted risk of fatal MI, non-fatal MI, and both was calculated using Framingham score equations. Predicted to observed risk ratio of MI was estimated. Results. There were 34 incident MI cases and 24 MI deaths (median follow-up 6.2 years). The score equations overestimated the prediction of incident MI and CHD death (ratio 2.27, 95% CI, 1.19-3.34) and incident MI (ratio 2.36, 95% CI, 1.07-3.65) in men. Conclusions. The Framingham score overestimated incident MI and CHD death risk in men; however, other studies are needed to confirm our results for recalibrating the score for Mexican subjects.