A framework for uncertainty assessment in simulation models

An understanding of the sources of uncertainty in an ecological model proves beneficial for: 1 developing a structurally valid model in a systematic way; 2 deciding if further refinement of the conceptual model is beneficial for the modelling purpose; and 3 interpreting the overall model uncertainty by understanding its sources. Our approach results in a guideline for assessing uncertainty in the validation of simulation models in a feasible and defensible way, and thus functions as a toolbox for modellers. We consider this work as a contribution towards a general concept of uncertainty in spatially explicit simulation models.