Evaluating Long-Term Seedling Growth Across Densities Using Nelder Plots and the Forest Vegetation Simulator (FVS) in the Black Hills, South Dakota, USA

Small-tree development affects future stand dynamics and dictates many ecological processes within a site. Accurately representing this critical component of stand development is important for evaluating treatment alternatives from fuel hazard reduction to harvest scheduling. As with all forest growth, competition with other vegetation is known to regulate small-tree growth dynamics. This study uses three Nelder plots with 45 years of ponderosa pine growth to understand competition effects on seedling growth and evaluate the Forest Vegetation Simulator (FVS) Central Rockies (CR) variant’s ability to represent these dynamics. Removal of herbaceous competition before planting increased tree diameters by 50–135% and height by 35–75% across a planting density gradient at age 12. However, by age 45, the effect of herbaceous competition on tree size was no longer evident. Instead, trees at the lowest planting density had diameters 2.5–3 times larger than the most densely grown trees. Forest Vegetation Simulator (FVS) simulations underpredicted diameter at breast height (dbh) by 35–50% and 0–35% for 12 and 45-year-old trees, respectively. There was an underprediction bias of 15–20% for heights at age 12 and overpredictions of 5–10% at age 45. Continuous underprediction of dbh will affect the reliability of modeled fuel treatment longevity and sustainable harvest scheduling.