National and regional impacts of climate change on malaria by 2030.

WESTERN Ghats (India); INDIA

The article reports projection of malaria by 2030 using A1B scenario of PRECIS model basically derived from HadRM3. Malaria scenario has been defined in terms of opening of months of malaria transmission based on minimum required temperature and relative humidity for baseline (1961-1990) and by 2030. Detailed analysis has been done for four vulnerable sectors, viz. Himalayan region, northeast, the Western Ghats and coastal region. Some parts of Uttarakhand, Jammu and Kashmir and Arunachal Pradesh are likely to open transmission windows in new districts with increase in 4-6 months category of transmission. In the northeastern states, intensity of transmission is projected to increase from 7-9 months to 10-12 months. The Western Ghats is projected to be affected to a minimum, whereas in the east coastal districts, reduction in transmission months is likely due to increased temperature. As malaria transmission dynamics is multi-factorial, driven by agricultural practices, water availability, urbanization, migration, socioeconomic conditions and intervention measures, projections based on climatic parameters alone should not be viewed with certainty rather they are for guidelines for preparedness in vulnerable areas and strengthen health infrastructure, effective health education and use of best available tools of intervention to cope with the threat of climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]