Natural selection could determine whether Acropora corals persist under expected climate change.

Publisher: American Association for the Advancement of Science Country of Publication: United States NLM ID: 0404511 Publication Model: Print-Electronic Cited Medium: Internet ISSN: 1095-9203 (Electronic) Linking ISSN: 00368075 NLM ISO Abbreviation: Science Subsets: MEDLINE

Publication: : Washington, DC : American Association for the Advancement of Science
Original Publication: New York, N.Y. : [s.n.] 1880-

Adaptation, Physiological*/genetics ; Anthozoa*/genetics ; Anthozoa*/physiology ; Climate Change* ; Coral Reefs* ; Selection, Genetic* ; Extreme Heat* ; Heat-Shock Response*; Animals ; Global Warming

Marine heatwaves are intensifying under climate change, exposing populations of reef-building corals to mass mortality and intense selective pressure. It remains unknown whether adaptation can keep pace with warming and maintain reef functioning. We have developed an eco-evolutionary metapopulation model for Acropora , an ecologically important yet thermally sensitive coral taxon. We found that, although corals have some adaptation capacity, they will suffer severe heatwave-induced declines over the coming decades. For a future in which emissions lead to ~3°C of global warming, natural selection could allow populations to persist, albeit in severely depleted states with elevated extinction risk and potential loss of ecosystem functioning. Yet, for thermally sensitive coral populations to thrive beyond 2050, there must be rapid reductions of greenhouse gas emissions that limit global warming to 2°C.

Date Created: 20241128 Date Completed: 20241212 Latest Revision: 20250418

20250418

10.1126/science.adl6480

39607905