Impact assessment of self-medication on COVID-19 prevalence in Gauteng, South Africa, using an age-structured disease transmission modelling framework.

Publisher: BioMed Central Country of Publication: England NLM ID: 100968562 Publication Model: Electronic Cited Medium: Internet ISSN: 1471-2458 (Electronic) Linking ISSN: 14712458 NLM ISO Abbreviation: BMC Public Health Subsets: MEDLINE

Original Publication: London : BioMed Central, [2001-

COVID-19*/epidemiology ; COVID-19*/prevention & control ; Self Medication*/statistics & numerical data; Humans ; Adolescent ; South Africa/epidemiology ; Adult ; Middle Aged ; Young Adult ; Aged ; Child ; Prevalence ; Child, Preschool ; Infant ; Infant, Newborn ; Epidemiological Models ; SARS-CoV-2 ; Age Factors ; Male ; Markov Chains ; Female

Objective: To assess the impact of self-medication on the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 across different age groups, examine the interplay of vaccination and self-medication in disease spread, and identify the age group most prone to self-medication.
Methods: We developed an age-structured compartmentalized epidemiological model to track the early dynamics of COVID-19. Age-structured data from the Government of Gauteng, encompassing the reported cumulative number of cases and daily confirmed cases, were used to calibrate the model through a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) framework. Subsequently, uncertainty and sensitivity analyses were conducted on the model parameters.
Results: We found that self-medication is predominant among the age group 15-64 (74.52%), followed by the age group 0-14 (34.02%), and then the age group 65+ (11.41%). The mean values of the basic reproduction number, the size of the first epidemic peak (the highest magnitude of the disease), and the time of the first epidemic peak (when the first highest magnitude occurs) are 4.16499, 241,715 cases, and 190.376 days, respectively. Moreover, we observed that self-medication among individuals aged 15-64 results in the highest spreading rate of COVID-19 at the onset of the outbreak and has the greatest impact on the first epidemic peak and its timing.
Conclusion: Studies aiming to understand the dynamics of diseases in areas prone to self-medication should account for this practice. There is a need for a campaign against COVID-19-related self-medication, specifically targeting the active population (ages 15-64).
(© 2024. The Author(s).)

Ann Ib Postgrad Med. 2007 Dec;5(2):64-7. (PMID: 25161435)
Drug Saf. 2001;24(14):1027-37. (PMID: 11735659)
Saudi Pharm J. 2021 Jan;29(1):1-11. (PMID: 33519270)
J Theor Biol. 2021 Aug 21;523:110711. (PMID: 33862090)
BMC Public Health. 2021 Jan 6;21(1):58. (PMID: 33407321)
Infect Dis Model. 2022 Sep;7(3):333-345. (PMID: 35702698)
Infect Dis Model. 2022 Mar;7(1):286-298. (PMID: 35233475)
J Indian Inst Sci. 2020;100(4):793-807. (PMID: 33144763)
Chaos Solitons Fractals. 2020 Nov;140:110103. (PMID: 32834629)
Infect Dis Model. 2020 Feb 11;5:248-255. (PMID: 32099934)
J Environ Public Health. 2022 Jun 28;2022:9274610. (PMID: 35800339)
PLoS One. 2021 Nov 2;16(11):e0259317. (PMID: 34727126)
Infect Dis Model. 2016 Aug 30;1(1):79-87. (PMID: 29928722)
Ther Adv Drug Saf. 2022 Apr 21;13:20420986221094141. (PMID: 35493401)
J Pharm Pharm Sci. 2005 Aug 12;8(2):326-31. (PMID: 16124943)
Infect Dis Model. 2020 Apr 21;5:293-308. (PMID: 32355904)
Chaos Solitons Fractals. 2020 Jul;136:109883. (PMID: 32427205)
Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2020 Nov 11;17(22):. (PMID: 33187315)
J Biol Dyn. 2021 Dec;15(1):137-150. (PMID: 33538240)
N Engl J Med. 2021 Nov 4;385(19):1761-1773. (PMID: 34525277)
PLoS Comput Biol. 2017 Sep 12;13(9):e1005697. (PMID: 28898249)
Chaos Solitons Fractals. 2020 Jul;136:109930. (PMID: 32501374)
Math Med Biol. 2022 Feb 22;39(1):49-76. (PMID: 34888677)
Math Biosci. 2020 Aug;326:108391. (PMID: 32497623)
PLoS Comput Biol. 2018 Dec 7;14(12):e1006638. (PMID: 30532206)
J Theor Biol. 2008 Sep 7;254(1):178-96. (PMID: 18572196)
Front Public Health. 2022 Nov 03;10:1041695. (PMID: 36408026)
Math Biosci. 2012 Jan;235(1):1-7. (PMID: 22037144)
Int J Prev Med. 2015 Jul 20;6:66. (PMID: 26288710)
J Autoimmun. 2020 May;109:102433. (PMID: 32113704)
PLoS Comput Biol. 2021 Jul 26;17(7):e1009098. (PMID: 34310590)
Int J Pharm Pract. 2018 Jun;26(3):258-266. (PMID: 28833710)
Med J Armed Forces India. 2021 Jul;77:S385-S392. (PMID: 34334908)

109981 International Development Research Centre; RGPIN-2022-04559 NSERC Discovery Grant; DGECR-2022-00454 NSERC Discovery Launch Supplement; NFRFE-2021-00879 New Frontier in Research Fund- Exploratory

Keywords: COVID-19; Age-structured; Disease model; Epidemiology; Self-medication

Date Created: 20240607 Date Completed: 20240608 Latest Revision: 20240610

20240610

PMC11157731

10.1186/s12889-024-18984-y

38849785