Transmission dynamics of Zika virus with multiple infection routes and a case study in Brazil.

Publisher: Nature Publishing Group Country of Publication: England NLM ID: 101563288 Publication Model: Electronic Cited Medium: Internet ISSN: 2045-2322 (Electronic) Linking ISSN: 20452322 NLM ISO Abbreviation: Sci Rep Subsets: MEDLINE

Original Publication: London : Nature Publishing Group, copyright 2011-

Zika Virus* ; Zika Virus Infection* ; Epidemics* ; Aedes*; Animals ; Humans ; Brazil/epidemiology ; Sewage

The Zika virus (ZIKV) is a serious global public health crisis. A major control challenge is its multiple transmission modes. This paper aims to simulate the transmission patterns of ZIKV using a dynamic process-based epidemiological model written in ordinary differential equations, which incorporates the human-to-mosquito infection by bites and sewage, mosquito-to-human infection by bites, and human-to-human infection by sex. Mathematical analyses are carried out to calculate the basic reproduction number and backward bifurcation, and prove the existence and stability of the equilibria. The model is validated with infection data by applying it to the 2015-2016 ZIKV epidemic in Brazil. The results indicate that the reproduction number is estimated to be 2.13, in which the contributions by mosquito bite, sex and sewage account for 85.7%, 3.5% and 10.8%, respectively. This number and the morbidity rate are most sensitive to parameters related to mosquito ecology, rather than asymptomatic or human-to-human transmission. Multiple transmission routes and suitable temperature exacerbate ZIKV infection in Brazil, and the vast majority of human infection cases were prevented by the intervention implemented. These findings may provide new insights to improve the risk assessment of ZIKV infection.
(© 2024. The Author(s).)

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12171116 National Natural Science Foundation of China; CRKL210106 Director Fund Project of the Ministry of Education Key Laboratory of Cognitive Radio and Information Processing; GCIS201707 Guangxi Key Laboratory of Cryptography and Information Security

Keywords: Basic reproduction number; Infection risk; Transmission dynamics; Zika virus

0 (Sewage)

Date Created: 20240329 Date Completed: 20240401 Latest Revision: 20240904

20240904

10.1038/s41598-024-58025-7

38548897