Establishment and evaluation of a nomogram prediction model for the risk of vascular calcification in stage 5 chronic kidney disease patients.

Publisher: Nature Publishing Group Country of Publication: England NLM ID: 101563288 Publication Model: Electronic Cited Medium: Internet ISSN: 2045-2322 (Electronic) Linking ISSN: 20452322 NLM ISO Abbreviation: Sci Rep Subsets: MEDLINE

Original Publication: London : Nature Publishing Group, copyright 2011-

Kidney Failure, Chronic* ; Vascular Calcification*/etiology; Humans ; Nomograms ; Uric Acid ; Retrospective Studies

Vascular calcification (VC) is a common complication of chronic kidney disease (CKD) that has a detrimental effect on patients' survival and prognosis. The aim of this study was to develop and validate a practical and reliable prediction model for VC in CKD5 patients. The medical records of 544 CKD5 patients were reviewed retrospectively. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to identify the independent risk factors for vascular calcification in patients with CKD5 and then created a nomogram prediction model. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), Hosmer-Lemeshow test, and decision curve analysis (DCA) were used to assess model performance. The patients were split into groups with normal and high serum uric acid levels, and the factors influencing these levels were investigated. Age, BUN, SUA, P and TG were independent risk factors for vascular calcification in CKD5 patients in the modeling group (P < 0.05). In the internal validation, the results of model showed that the AUC was 0.917. No significant divergence between the predicted probability of the nomogram and the actual incidence rate (x ²  = 5.406, P = 0.753) was revealed by the calibration plot and HL test, thus confirming that the calibration was satisfactory. The external validation also showed good discrimination (AUC = 0.973). The calibration chart and HL test also demonstrated good consistency. Besides, the correlation analysis of serum uric acid levels in all CKD5 patients revealed that elevated uric acid levels may be related to gender, BUN, P, and TG.
(© 2024. The Author(s).)

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No.20231091 Administration of Traditional Chinese Medicine of Guangdong Province, China; No.202201010196 Science and Technology Projects in Guangzhou; 202201020080 Guangzhou Science and Technology Bureau and universities; 2021ZDZX2042 Special Project in Key Fields of Universities in Guangdong Province; No. JNU1AF-CFTP-2022-a01219 Clinical Frontier Technology Program of the First Affiliated Hospital of Jinan University, China

268B43MJ25 (Uric Acid)

Date Created: 20240110 Date Completed: 20240112 Latest Revision: 20240113

20240113

PMC10781805

10.1038/s41598-023-48275-2

38200088