High probability of successive occurrence of Nankai megathrust earthquakes.

Publisher: Nature Publishing Group Country of Publication: England NLM ID: 101563288 Publication Model: Electronic Cited Medium: Internet ISSN: 2045-2322 (Electronic) Linking ISSN: 20452322 NLM ISO Abbreviation: Sci Rep Subsets: MEDLINE

Original Publication: London : Nature Publishing Group, copyright 2011-

Earthquakes* ; Disaster Planning* ; Disasters*; Japan

Great earthquakes along the Nankai megathrust in south-western Japan feature in the top priority list of Japan's disaster management agenda. In May 2019, an alert system was incepted to issue public warnings when the probability of an earthquake occurrence along the Nankai megathrust became higher than usual. One of the cases that trigger the issuance of public warnings is when a great earthquake occurred and another one of the same scale is anticipated within a short period of time. Although such "twin ruptures" have occurred multiple times along the Nankai megathrust, the quantification of the probability of such twin ruptures has never been attempted. Based on global statistics and local earthquake occurrence history, we estimated the probability of a successive occurrence of two M8 or larger earthquakes within 3 years globally and along the Nankai megathrust to be 5.0-18% and 4.3-96%, respectively. The timing of the second earthquake followed the Omori-Utsu law in global statistics, which allowed the estimation of the probability for the successive occurrence of Nankai megathrust earthquakes in arbitrary time frames. The predicted probability for the one-week timeframe was 100-3600-fold higher than that of the norm, endorsing the necessity for the warning scheme.
(© 2023. The Author(s).)

Erratum in: Sci Rep. 2023 Feb 3;13(1):2016. (PMID: 36737501)

Jordan, T. H. et al. Operational earthquake forecasting: State of knowledge and guidelines for utilization. Ann. Geophys. 54, 315–391 (2011).
Earthquake Research Committee. List of long-term evaluation of earthquake occurrence along major active faults and subduction (in Japanese). Accessed 6 Apr 2022. https://www.jishin.go.jp/evaluation/long_term_evaluation/lte_summary (2022).
Fujiwara, H. et al. National seismic hazard maps of Japan. Bull. Earthquake Res. Inst. Univ. Tokyo 81, 221–232 (2006).
Field, E. H. et al. Long-term time-dependent probabilities for the third uniform California earthquake rupture forecast (UCERF3). Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 105, 511–543 (2015). (PMID: 10.1785/0120140093)
Christophersen, A. et al. Progress and challenges in operational earthquake forecasting in New Zealand. 2017 New Zealand Society of Earthquake Engineering Conference (2017).
Ando, M. Source mechanisms and tectonic significance of historical earthquakes along the Nankai Trough, Japan. Tectonophysics 27, 119–140 (1975). (PMID: 10.1016/0040-1951(75)90102-X)
Fujiwara, O., Goto, K., Ando, R. & Garrett, E. Paleotsunami research along the Nankai Trough and Ryukyu Trench subduction zones—Current achievements and future challenges. Earth-Sci. Rev. 210, 103333 (2020). (PMID: 10.1016/j.earscirev.2020.103333)
Garrett, E. et al. A systematic review of geological evidence for Holocene earthquakes and tsunamis along the Nankai-Suruga Trough, Japan. Earth-Sci. Rev. 159, 337–357 (2016). (PMID: 10.1016/j.earscirev.2016.06.011)
Ishibashi, K. & Satake, K. Problems on forecasting great earthquakes in the subduction zones around Japan by means of paleoseismology (in Japanese with English abstract). Zisin 50, 1–21 (1998). (PMID: 10.4294/zisin1948.50.appendix_1)
Kumagai, H. Time sequence and the recurrence models for large earthquakes along the Nankai Trough revisited. Geophys. Res. Lett. 23, 1139–1142 (1996). (PMID: 10.1029/96GL01037)
Sangawa, A. Research on paleoearthquakes using traces discovered at archaeological sites (in Japanese). Quat. Res. 32, 249–256 (1993). (PMID: 10.4116/jaqua.32.249)
Yokota, Y., Ishikawa, T., Watanabe, S.-I., Tashiro, T. & Asada, A. Seafloor geodetic constraints on interplate coupling of the Nankai Trough megathrust zone. Nature 534, 374–377 (2016). (PMID: 10.1038/nature17632)
Hashimoto, M. Is the long-term probability of the occurrence of large earthquakes along the Nankai Trough Inflated?—Scientific review. Seismol. Res. Lett. 93, 2311–2319 (2022). (PMID: 10.1785/0220210152)
Earthquake Research Committee. On the Long-Term Evaluation of the Earthquake Activity Along the Nankai Trough (Ver. 2) (in Japanese). Accessed 23 Aug 2022. https://www.jishin.go.jp/main/chousa/13may_nankai/nankai2_shubun.pdf (2013).
Ishibashi, K. Status of historical seismology in Japan. Ann. Geophys. 47, 339–368 (2004).
Aida, I. Numerical experiments for the tsunamis generated off the coast of the Nankaido district. Bull. Earthq. Res. Inst. Univ. Tokyo 56, 713–730 (1981).
Sagiya, T. & Thatcher, W. Coseismic slip resolution along a plate boundary megathrust: The Nankai Trough, southwest Japan. J. Geophys. Res. 104, 1111–1129 (1999). (PMID: 10.1029/98JB02644)
Ito, Y. et al. Episodic slow slip events in the Japan subduction zone before the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake. Tectonophysics 600, 14–26 (2013). (PMID: 10.1016/j.tecto.2012.08.022)
Kato, A. et al. Propagation of slow slip leading up to the 2011 M(w) 9.0 Tohoku-Oki earthquake. Science 335, 705–708 (2012). (PMID: 10.1126/science.1215141)
Kato, A., Fukuda, J., Kumazawa, T. & Nakagawa, S. Accelerated nucleation of the 2014 Iquique, Chile Mw 8.2 Earthquake. Sci. Rep. 6, 24792 (2016). (PMID: 10.1038/srep24792)
Melbourne, T. I. Precursory transient slip during the 2001 Mw = 8.4 Peru earthquake sequence from continuous GPS. Geophys. Res. Lett. https://doi.org/10.1029/2002GL015533 (2002). (PMID: 10.1029/2002GL015533)
Ruiz, S. et al. Intense foreshocks and a slow slip event preceded the 2014 Iquique Mw 8.1 earthquake. Science 345, 1165–1169 (2014). (PMID: 10.1126/science.1256074)
Socquet, A. et al. An 8 month slow slip event triggers progressive nucleation of the 2014 Chile megathrust. Geophys. Res. Lett. 44, 4046–4053 (2017). (PMID: 10.1002/2017GL073023)
Voss, N. et al. Do slow slip events trigger large and great megathrust earthquakes?. Sci. Adv. 4, eaat8472 (2018). (PMID: 10.1126/sciadv.aat8472)
Obara, K. & Kato, A. Connecting slow earthquakes to huge earthquakes. Science 353, 253–257 (2016). (PMID: 10.1126/science.aaf1512)
Takagi, R., Uchida, N. & Obara, K. Along-strike variation and migration of long-term slow slip events in the western Nankai subduction zone Japan. J. Geophys. Res. 124, 3853–3880 (2019). (PMID: 10.1029/2018JB016738)
Study Group for the Forecastability of Major Earthquakes along the Nankai Trough. On the forecastability of major earthquakes along the Nankai Trough (in Japanese). Accessed 17 Sept 2022. https://www.bousai.go.jp/jishin/nankai/tyosabukai_wg/pdf/h290825honbun.pdf (2017).
Hashimoto, T. & Yokota, T. Successively occurring large earthquakes in the world - Comparison of real cases with expectations by the space-time ETAS. Japan Geoscience Union 2019 Meeting SSS10-P02 (2019).
Cabinet Office of Japan. Guidelines for Formulating Disaster Risk Management Measures based on Various Nankai Trough Earthquake Scenarios (1st edition) (in Japanese). Accessed 3 May 2022. https://www.bousai.go.jp/jishin/nankai/pdf/honbun_guideline2.pdf (2019).
Di Giacomo, D., Engdahl, E. R. & Storchak, D. A. The ISC-GEM earthquake catalogue (1904–2014): Status after the extension project. Earth Syst. Sci. Data 10, 1877–1899 (2018). (PMID: 10.5194/essd-10-1877-2018)
Storchak, D. A. et al. Public release of the ISC–GEM global instrumental earthquake catalogue (1900–2009). Seismol. Res. Lett. 84, 810–815 (2013). (PMID: 10.1785/0220130034)
U.S. Geological Survey earthquake hazards program. Advanced National Seismic System (ANSS) comprehensive catalog of earthquake events and products. Accessed 18 Apr 2022. https://www.sciencebase.gov/catalog/item/52eab950e4b0444d1ce67917 (2019).
Ishibashi, K. Great Tokai and Nankai, Japan, earthquakes as revealed by historical seismology: 1. Review of the events until the mid-14th century (in Japanese with English abstract). J. Geogr. (Chigaku Zasshi) 108, 399–423 (1999). (PMID: 10.5026/jgeography.108.4_399)
Sangawa, A. A study of paleoearthquakes at archeological sites. Synthesiology 2, 84–94 (2009). (PMID: 10.5571/syntheng.2.84)
Usami, T., Ishii, H., Imamura, T., Takemura, M. & Matsuura, R. Materials for Comprehensive List of Destructive Earthquakes in Japan 599–2012 (Univ. Tokyo Press, 2013).
Baba, T., Tanioka, Y., Cummins, P. R. & Uhira, K. The slip distribution of the 1946 Nankai earthquake estimated from tsunami inversion using a new plate model. Phys. Earth Planet. Inter. 132, 59–73 (2002). (PMID: 10.1016/S0031-9201(02)00044-4)
Furumura, T., Imai, K. & Maeda, T. A revised tsunami source model for the 1707 Hoei earthquake and simulation of tsunami inundation of Ryujin Lake, Kyushu, Japan. J. Geophys. Res. 116, B02308 (2011).
Kanamori, H. Tectonic implications of the 1944 Tonankai and the 1946 Nankaido earthquakes. Phys. Earth Planet. Inter. 5, 129–139 (1972). (PMID: 10.1016/0031-9201(72)90082-9)
Kawasumi, H. Measure of earthquake danger and expectancy of maximum intensity throughout Japan as inferred from the seismic activity in historical times. Bull. Earthq. Res. Inst. 29, 469–482 (1951).
Tanioka, Y. & Satake, K. Detailed coseismic slip distribution of the 1944 Tonankai Earthquake estimated from tsunami waveforms. Geophys. Res. Lett. 28, 1075–1078 (2001). (PMID: 10.1029/2000GL012284)
Tanioka, Y. & Satake, K. Coseismic slip distribution of the 1946 Nankai earthquake and aseismic slips caused by the earthquake. Earth Planets Space 53, 235–241 (2001). (PMID: 10.1186/BF03352380)
Ogata, Y. Detection of precursory relative quiescence before great earthquakes through a statistical model. J. Geophys. Res. 97, 19845 (1992). (PMID: 10.1029/92JB00708)
Ogata, Y. & Zhuang, J. Space–time ETAS models and an improved extension. Tectonophysics 413, 13–23 (2006). (PMID: 10.1016/j.tecto.2005.10.016)
Ellsworth, W. L. et al. A physically-based earthquake recurrence model for estimation of long-term earthquake probabilities. USGS Open-File Report https://doi.org/10.3133/ofr99522 (1999). (PMID: 10.3133/ofr99522)
Okuno, N. & Okuno, K. The 1361 Koan earthquake as seen from the damage of Ise Grand Shrine Geku (in Japanese with English abstract). Hist. Earthq. (Rekishi Jishin) 32, 49–55 (2017).
Tsuji, Y. & Ueda, K. Proof of the existence of the 1498 Meio Nankai Earthquake and the date of its occurrence. Abstracts, Japan Earth and Planetary Science Joint Meeting 169–169 (1997).
Hatori, T. Sources of large tsunamis generated in the Boso, Tokai and Nankai regions in 1498 and 1605. Bull. Earthq. Res. Inst. Univ. Tokyo 50, 171–185 (1975).
Ando, M. & Nakamura, M. Seismological evidence for a tsunami earthquake recorded four centuries ago on historical documents. Geophys. J. Int. 195, 1088–1101 (2013). (PMID: 10.1093/gji/ggt270)
Ishibashi K. & Harada T. Working hypothesis of the 1605 Great Izu-Bonin Trench Earthquake and the 1614 Nankai Trough earthquake. Fall Meeting of the Seismological Society of Japan (2013).

Date Created: 20230110 Date Completed: 20230112 Latest Revision: 20230207

20231215

PMC9832165

10.1038/s41598-022-26455-w

36627329