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Quantifying risk factors and potential geographic extent of African swine fever across the world.

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  • معلومة اضافية
    • المصدر:
      Publisher: Public Library of Science Country of Publication: United States NLM ID: 101285081 Publication Model: eCollection Cited Medium: Internet ISSN: 1932-6203 (Electronic) Linking ISSN: 19326203 NLM ISO Abbreviation: PLoS One Subsets: MEDLINE
    • بيانات النشر:
      Original Publication: San Francisco, CA : Public Library of Science
    • الموضوع:
      African Swine Fever*/epidemiology ; African Swine Fever Virus*; Animals ; Disease Outbreaks ; Europe/epidemiology ; Risk Factors ; Sus scrofa ; Swine
    • نبذة مختصرة :
      African swine fever (ASF) has spread to many countries in Africa, Europe and Asia in the past decades. However, the potential geographic extent of ASF infection is unknown. Here we combined a modeling framework with the assembled contemporary records of ASF cases and multiple covariates to predict the risk distribution of ASF at a global scale. Local spatial variations in ASF risk derived from domestic pigs is influenced strongly by livestock factors, while the risk of having ASF in wild boars is mainly associated with natural habitat covariates. The risk maps show that ASF is to be ubiquitous in many areas, with a higher risk in areas in the northern hemisphere. Nearly half of the world's domestic pigs (1.388 billion) are in the high-risk zones. Our results provide a better understanding of the potential distribution beyond the current geographical scope of the disease.
      Competing Interests: The authors declare that they have no competing interests.
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    • الموضوع:
      Date Created: 20220421 Date Completed: 20220425 Latest Revision: 20220716
    • الموضوع:
      20231215
    • الرقم المعرف:
      PMC9022809
    • الرقم المعرف:
      10.1371/journal.pone.0267128
    • الرقم المعرف:
      35446903