Clinical utility of family history of depression for prognosis of adolescent depression severity and duration assessed with predictive modeling.

Publisher: Blackwell Publishers Country of Publication: England NLM ID: 0375361 Publication Model: Print-Electronic Cited Medium: Internet ISSN: 1469-7610 (Electronic) Linking ISSN: 00219630 NLM ISO Abbreviation: J Child Psychol Psychiatry Subsets: MEDLINE

Publication: 2002- : Oxford : Blackwell Publishers
Original Publication: Oxford ; New York : Pergamon Press

Depression*/psychology; Humans ; Longitudinal Studies ; Prognosis ; Risk Factors

Background: Family history of depression (FHD) is a known risk factor for the new onset of depression. However, it is unclear if FHD is clinically useful for prognosis in adolescents with current, ongoing, or past depression. This preregistered study uses a longitudinal, multi-informant design to examine whether a child's FHD adds information about future depressive episodes and depression severity applying state-of-the-art predictive out-of-sample methodology.
Methods: We examined data in adolescents with current or past depression (age 11-17 years) from the National Institute of Mental Health Characterization and Treatment of Adolescent Depression (CAT-D) study. We asked whether a history of depression in a first-degree relative was predictive of depressive episode duration (72 participants) and future depressive symptom severity in probands (129 participants, 1,439 total assessments).
Results: Family history of depression, while statistically associated with time spent depressed, did not improve predictions of time spent depressed, nor did it improve models of change in depression severity measured by self- or parent-report.
Conclusions: Family history of depression does not improve the prediction of the course of depression in adolescents already diagnosed with depression. The difference between statistical association and predictive models highlights the importance of assessing predictive performance when evaluating questions of clinical utility.
(Published 2021. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA. Journal of Child Psychology and Psychiatry published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Association for Child and Adolescent Mental Health.)

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ZIA MH002957 United States ImNIH Intramural NIH HHS

Keywords: Depression; adolescence; family history; longitudinal studies

ClinicalTrials.gov NCT03388606

Date Created: 20211130 Date Completed: 20220722 Latest Revision: 20221015

20231215

PMC9541414

10.1111/jcpp.13547

34847615