Impacts of Climatic Variability on Vibrio parahaemolyticus Outbreaks in Taiwan.

Publisher: MDPI Country of Publication: Switzerland NLM ID: 101238455 Publication Model: Electronic Cited Medium: Internet ISSN: 1660-4601 (Electronic) Linking ISSN: 16604601 NLM ISO Abbreviation: Int J Environ Res Public Health Subsets: MEDLINE

Original Publication: Basel : MDPI, c2004-

Climate Change* ; Disease Outbreaks* ; Vibrio parahaemolyticus*; Foodborne Diseases/*epidemiology ; Seafood/*microbiology ; Vibrio Infections/*epidemiology; Foodborne Diseases/etiology ; Humans ; Incidence ; Models, Theoretical ; Seasons ; Taiwan/epidemiology ; Vibrio Infections/etiology

This study aimed to investigate and quantify the relationship between climate variation and incidence of Vibrio parahaemolyticus in Taiwan. Specifically, seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models (including autoregression, seasonality, and a lag-time effect) were employed to predict the role of climatic factors (including temperature, rainfall, relative humidity, ocean temperature and ocean salinity) on the incidence of V. parahaemolyticus in Taiwan between 2000 and 2011. The results indicated that average temperature (+), ocean temperature (+), ocean salinity of 6 months ago (+), maximum daily rainfall (current (-) and one month ago (-)), and average relative humidity (current and 9 months ago (-)) had significant impacts on the incidence of V. parahaemolyticus. Our findings offer a novel view of the quantitative relationship between climate change and food poisoning by V. parahaemolyticus in Taiwan. An early warning system based on climate change information for the disease control management is required in future.

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Keywords: Taiwan; Vibrio parahaemolyticus; climate; food poisoning; outbreak; variability

Date Created: 20160206 Date Completed: 20160921 Latest Revision: 20240324

20250114

PMC4772208

10.3390/ijerph13020188

26848675