Value of Information Analysis Applied to the Economic Evaluation of Interventions Aimed at Reducing Juvenile Delinquency: An Illustration.

Publisher: Public Library of Science Country of Publication: United States NLM ID: 101285081 Publication Model: eCollection Cited Medium: Internet ISSN: 1932-6203 (Electronic) Linking ISSN: 19326203 NLM ISO Abbreviation: PLoS One Subsets: MEDLINE

Original Publication: San Francisco, CA : Public Library of Science

Decision Theory* ; Models, Economic*; Crime/*prevention & control ; Juvenile Delinquency/*prevention & control ; Program Evaluation/*economics; Adolescent ; Child ; Consumer Behavior ; Cost-Benefit Analysis ; Costs and Cost Analysis ; Crime/economics ; Family Therapy/economics ; Family Therapy/organization & administration ; Feasibility Studies ; Group Homes/economics ; Group Homes/organization & administration ; Humans ; Juvenile Delinquency/economics ; Markov Chains ; Netherlands ; Public Policy ; Social Values ; Stochastic Processes ; Uncertainty

Objectives: To investigate whether a value of information analysis, commonly applied in health care evaluations, is feasible and meaningful in the field of crime prevention.
Methods: Interventions aimed at reducing juvenile delinquency are increasingly being evaluated according to their cost-effectiveness. Results of cost-effectiveness models are subject to uncertainty in their cost and effect estimates. Further research can reduce that parameter uncertainty. The value of such further research can be estimated using a value of information analysis, as illustrated in the current study. We built upon an earlier published cost-effectiveness model that demonstrated the comparison of two interventions aimed at reducing juvenile delinquency. Outcomes were presented as costs per criminal activity free year.
Results: At a societal willingness-to-pay of €71,700 per criminal activity free year, further research to eliminate parameter uncertainty was valued at €176 million. Therefore, in this illustrative analysis, the value of information analysis determined that society should be willing to spend a maximum of €176 million in reducing decision uncertainty in the cost-effectiveness of the two interventions. Moreover, the results suggest that reducing uncertainty in some specific model parameters might be more valuable than in others.
Conclusions: Using a value of information framework to assess the value of conducting further research in the field of crime prevention proved to be feasible. The results were meaningful and can be interpreted according to health care evaluation studies. This analysis can be helpful in justifying additional research funds to further inform the reimbursement decision in regard to interventions for juvenile delinquents.

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Date Created: 20150707 Date Completed: 20160413 Latest Revision: 20181113

20231215

PMC4493049

10.1371/journal.pone.0131255

26146831