An Assessment of Profitability Using Monte Carlo Simulation Approach: A Case of Georgia Blueberry Industry.

Our study assesses the profitability of producing blueberries using a drip irrigation system by addressing the price and yield variability. We use deterministic and stochastic budgeting approaches. We extend the deterministic budget to the stochastic budget using Monte Carlo simulation and applying triangular distributions to blueberry prices and yield in Georgia. The net present value (NPV) of returns from a blueberry investment under a deterministic budget is 1 to 3 times greater than under a stochastic budget. Under the stochastic approach, we study returns from blueberries by classifying growers based on their performance; thus, the study has direct implications particularly for Georgian and southeast growers in making investment decisions. Furthermore, the results will be helpful to farmers, researchers, and farm risk analyzers in assessing agricultural investment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]