Political Expediency or Humanitarian Crisis? Pakistan's Security Challenges and Political Calculations Concerning Taliban-Ruled Afghanistan.

Since the Taliban takeover of Kabul in mid-2021, Pakistan has experienced a notable rise in terrorist attacks and bombings. Initially, Interim Prime Minister Kakar blamed Afghan refugees for these security incidents, a narrative later adopted by Pakistan's civil establishment to deflect attention from the growing domestic security crisis and escalating instability in Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. This article presents a critical examination of the surge in Afghan migration to Pakistan following the return of the Taliban to power, using classical immigration theory to understand its implications. It explores the impact of the refugee influx on Pakistan's already fragile security environment, compounded by policy failures. By means of a qualitative methodology - including discourse and content analysis - the study incorporates primary and secondary sources such as government reports, academic journals, and media coverage. The article argues that while the motivations driving Afghan refugees to Pakistan have remained largely consistent across four waves of migration, two new factors have emerged in the latest wave. It also scrutinizes Prime Minister Kakar's controversial October 2023 decision to deport millions of Afghan refugees without prior negotiation with the Taliban. The analysis concludes that this policy, framed as a pressure tactic, has failed to achieve its goals, and Pakistan's security situation continues to worsen. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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