'Crystal Ball' Breaks as Traders Fail to Get Rich in New Study.

BOARD of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.); FUTURES; STOCK prices; ASSET allocation; INVESTORS; STOCK index futures

A recent study conducted by Elm Partners Management's Victor Haghani and James White found that even with advance knowledge of major economic news and Federal Reserve policy decisions, amateur traders were unable to make significant profits in the stock and bond markets. The study, called "The Crystal Ball Challenge," placed participants in a position where they knew the future but did not know the precise market moves. The results showed that even experienced traders only had a 63% success rate in predicting market directions. The study suggests that successfully translating advance knowledge into profitable investment decisions is a difficult task. [Extracted from the article]

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