Conscription and Military Service: Do They Result in Future Violent and Nonviolent Incarcerations and Recidivism?

DRAFT (Military service); MILITARY service; IMPRISONMENT; RECIDIVISM; VIOLENT crimes; COHORT analysis

Employing nonparametric bounds, we examine the effect of military service on incarceration outcomes using the Vietnam draft lotteries as a possibly invalid instrumental variable for military service. The draft is allowed to have a direct effect on the outcomes independently of military service, disposing of the exclusion restriction. We find: (i) suggestive but not strong statistical evidence that the direct effect of the draft increases the incarceration rate for violent offenses for a particular cohort of draft avoiders and (ii) military service increases the incarceration rate for violent and nonviolent crimes of white volunteers and veterans in certain birth cohorts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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