Trend Analysis of Milk Production in India.

Background: Dairy sector is a thriving enterprise in Indian agriculture showing colossal growth responsible for placing the country at the top position worldwide in milk production. This sector has seen a rising growth; however, there seems to be demand supply gap over the next few years. Under this backdrop, the study has been taken with the twin objectives of studying the trend and growth rate of production and per capita availability of milk and to forecast the production of milk through ARIMA modelling. Methods: The study is based on secondary data of milk production from 1989 to 2019. The growth was examined by estimating compound annual growth rate and the Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) methodology was applied for modeling and forecasting of milk production of India. Augmented dickey-fuller (ADF) test was used to determine the stationarity of the model after which it was used to forecast the future production. Result: The CAGR of milk production was higher in comparison to per capita availability (4.34 and 2.71 per cent per annum respectively). The forecast from the fitted ARIMA model show that the milk production is expected to be 244.7 million tonnes in 2024. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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