Item request has been placed!
×
Item request cannot be made.
×
![loading](/sites/all/modules/hf_eds/images/loading.gif)
Processing Request
Robust estimation of SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in US counties.
Item request has been placed!
×
Item request cannot be made.
×
![loading](/sites/all/modules/hf_eds/images/loading.gif)
Processing Request
- المؤلفون: Li, Hanmo; Gu, Mengyang
- المصدر:
Scientific Reports; 6/4/2021, Vol. 11 Issue 1, p1-16, 16p
- الموضوع:
- معلومة اضافية
- الموضوع:
- نبذة مختصرة :
The COVID-19 outbreak is asynchronous in US counties. Mitigating the COVID-19 transmission requires not only the state and federal level order of protective measures such as social distancing and testing, but also public awareness of time-dependent risk and reactions at county and community levels. We propose a robust approach to estimate the heterogeneous progression of SARS-CoV-2 at all US counties having no less than 2 COVID-19 associated deaths, and we use the daily probability of contracting (PoC) SARS-CoV-2 for a susceptible individual to quantify the risk of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in a community. We found that shortening by 5 % of the infectious period of SARS-CoV-2 can reduce around 39 % (or 78 K, 95 % CI: [66 K , 89 K ]) of the COVID-19 associated deaths in the US as of 20 September 2020. Our findings also indicate that reducing infection and deaths by a shortened infectious period is more pronounced for areas with the effective reproduction number close to 1, suggesting that testing should be used along with other mitigation measures, such as social distancing and facial mask-wearing, to reduce the transmission rate. Our deliverable includes a dynamic county-level map for local officials to determine optimal policy responses and for the public to better understand the risk of contracting SARS-CoV-2 on each day. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- نبذة مختصرة :
Copyright of Scientific Reports is the property of Springer Nature and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)
No Comments.