Item request has been placed!
×
Item request cannot be made.
×
Processing Request
Nowcasting (Short-Term Forecasting) of Influenza Epidemics in Local Settings, Sweden, 2008-2019.
Item request has been placed!
×
Item request cannot be made.
×
Processing Request
- المؤلفون: Spreco, Armin1,2 ; Eriksson, Olle1,3; Dahlström, Örjan4; Cowling, Benjamin John5; Biggerstaff, Matthew6; Ljunggren, Gunnar7,8; Jöud, Anna9,10,11; Istefan, Emanuel6; Timpka, Toomas1,2,3
- المصدر:
Emerging Infectious Diseases. Nov2020, Vol. 26 Issue 11, p2669-2677. 9p.
- معلومة اضافية
- نبذة مختصرة :
The timing of influenza case incidence during epidemics can differ between regions within nations and states. We conducted a prospective 10-year evaluation (January 2008-February 2019) of a local influenza nowcasting (short-term forecasting) method in 3 urban counties in Sweden with independent public health administrations by using routine health information system data. Detection-of-epidemic-start (detection), peak timing, and peak intensity were nowcasted. Detection displayed satisfactory performance in 2 of the 3 counties for all nonpandemic influenza seasons and in 6 of 9 seasons for the third county. Peak-timing prediction showed satisfactory performance from the influenza season 2011-12 onward. Peak-intensity prediction also was satisfactory for influenza seasons in 2 of the counties but poor in 1 county. Local influenza nowcasting was satisfactory for seasonal influenza in 2 of 3 counties. The less satisfactory performance in 1 of the study counties might be attributable to population mixing with a neighboring metropolitan area. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
No Comments.