Stability in change: building a stable ecological security pattern in Northeast China under climate and land use changes

Abstract Climate change and land use change caused by human activities have a profound impact on ecological security. Simulating the spatio-temporal changes in ecosystem service value and ecological security patterns under different carbon emission scenarios in the future is of great significance for formulating sustainable development policies. This study quantified the four major ecosystem services (habitat quality, water retention, soil erosion, and carbon storage) in Northeast China (NC), identified ecological source areas, and constructed a stable ecological security pattern. The results show that the spatial patterns of soil erosion, carbon storage, water retention, and habitat quality, the four major ecosystem services in NC, are relatively stable in the next 30 years, and there is no significant difference from the current spatial pattern distribution. The SSP1–2.6 carbon emission scenario is a priority model for the development of NC in the next 30 years. In this carbon emission scenario, the NC has the largest ecological resources (191,177 km2) and the least comprehensive resistance value (850.006 × 10−4). At the same time, the relative resistance of the corridor in this scenario is the smallest, and the area of the mandatory reserve pinch points is the least. The ecological corridors in the SSP1–2.6 scenario form a network distribution among the ecological sources, connecting several large ecological sources as a whole. This study fills the knowledge gap in building a stable ecological security pattern in NC under the background of global change, and provides a scientific basis for the decision-making of regional ecological security and land resource management.