Tropical cyclones and coral reefs under a changing climate: Prospects and likely synergies between future high-energy storms and other acute and chronic coral reef stressors

Shallow warm-water coral reefs are among the most biodiverse and valuable ecosystems on Earth, supporting a quarter of all marine life and delivering critical ecosystem services such as coastal protection, food security, and economic benefits through tourism and fisheries. However, these ecosystems are under escalating threat from anthropogenic climate change, with tropical cyclones representing their most significant high-energy storm disturbances. Approximately 70% of the world’s coral reefs lie within the tropical cyclone belt, where the frequency, intensity, and rainfall associated with tropical cyclones are changing due to global warming. Coral reefs already compromised by climate-induced stressors—such as marine heatwaves, ocean acidification, and sea-level rise—are increasingly vulnerable to the compounding impacts of more intense and slower-moving cyclones. Projected changes in cyclone behaviour, including regional variations in storm intensity and rainfall, may further undermine coral reef resilience, pushing many reef systems toward irreversible degradation. Future impacts will be regionally variable but increasingly severe without immediate climate mitigation. Building reef resilience will require a combination of rapid global carbon emission reductions and ambitious adaptation strategies, including enhanced reef management and restoration and conservation efforts. The long-term survival of coral reefs now hinges on coordinated global action and support for reef-dependent communities.