Peste des Petits Ruminants risk factors and space-time clusters in Mymensingh, Bangladesh.

Using a hospital-based case-control study design, our aim was to identify risk factors for-and space-time clusters of-Peste des Petits Ruminants ( PPR) in Mymensingh, Bangladesh. Three hundred and eighty PPR cases diagnosed between January 2005 and December 2014 at the Bangladesh Agricultural University Veterinary Teaching Hospital ( BAUVTH) were selected; three controls per case from BAUVTH were then selected ( n = 1,048). From records, data extracted included information on date of report, location, age, breed, sex and body weight of goats. A mixed multivariable logistic regression model was built to identify risk factors. Location was included as a random effect and season and demographic variables as fixed effects. The approximate geographic coordinates of locations were collected, and the scan statistic (Bernoulli model) was used to identify space-time clusters of PPR. Compared with goats <4 months of age, the odds of PPR were 3 (95% confidence interval [ CI]: 1.95-4.66), 1.9 ( CI: 1.34-2.76) and 1.8 times (95% CI: 1.19-2.58) greater in goats aged 4-6, >6-12 and >12-24 months, respectively. The occurrence of PPR was also significantly higher (odds ratio [ OR] 3.2; 95% CI: 1.15-8.59) in the Jamunapari breed than Black Bengals. Significantly higher odds of PPR were observed in winter ( OR 1.6; 95% CI: 1.06-2.14) and the monsoon season ( OR 1.5; 95% CI: 1.04-2.11) compared with the post-monsoon season. Two significant ( p < .05) space-time clusters were identified between 2 December 2006 and 6 September 2007 (two locations) and 28 November 2006 and 13 February 2007 (five locations). Peste des Petits Ruminants is endemic in Bangladesh, but also occurs as discrete outbreaks. Control efforts-such as vaccination-should focus on high-risk groups (4-24 months of age, Jamunapari breed), prior to the onset of winter and the monsoon season so as to increase immunity during high-risk periods, and focus on disease hotspots. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]